A mathematical model of cybercrime contagion: impact ofemployment on youth offending

Abstract

The growing incidence of youth cybercrime, driven by unemployment and the precarity of temporary employment, constitutes a major social crisis that has received limited mathematical analysis. This study develops a deterministic four-compartment UCTR model comprising unemployed (U), cybercriminal (C), temporarily employed (T), and regularly employed (R) youth populations to examine interactions among unemployment, temporary employment, stable employment, and illicit digital activity. Using the next-generation matrix, we derive the cybercrime generation number, N₀, and establish that the cybercrime-free equilibrium is globally stable when N₀ < 1. Global sensitivity analysis based on Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) identifies peer influence and recruitment into cybercrime from temporary employment as the strongest drivers of cybercrime. Conversely, transition to stable employment and legal prosecution are the principal deterrents. Numerical simulations show that high job-loss rates and continued entry into temporary employment sustain the cybercriminal population, whereas consistent transition to permanent employment substantially reduces cybercrime over time. These findings indicate that cybercrime control requires structural policies that strengthen long-term employment security rather than short-term interventions that do not provide sustained socioeconomic stability.