Comparative Analysis of the Implication of Periods Before and During Vaccination of COVID-19 Infection in Some Regional Leading African Countries

Authors

  • Abiola T. Owolabi Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria
  • Kayode Ayinde Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
  • Taiwo J. Adejumo Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria
  • Wakeel A. Kasali Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria
  • Emmanuel T. Adewuyi Department of Statistics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, Nigeria

Keywords:

COVID -19, Vaccination, Case fatality Rate, Incidence Rate, Infection rate, Relative Risk

Abstract

There has been a high expectation about the efficacy of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. This research investigates and compares the efficiency of COVID-19 vaccines in five (5) African countries and evaluates the risk or preventive factors inherent in COVID-19 spread. Five different COVID-19 leading African countries in their respective regions (Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Morocco, and Cameroon) were considered in this study. Population sampling proportional to size concept was used to draw data for two periods (before and during COVID-19 vaccination). A sequential analysis approach was adopted, focusing on the estimates of some epidemiological metrics for the two distinct periods. Nigeria (a wet region) has the lowest risk of COVID-19 incidence during vaccination. The risk of being reported COVID-19 positive in South Africa (a high semi-arid region) is approximately 137 times the number in Nigeria. This study suggests that while vaccination has successfully reduced the case fatality rate in most countries considered except Ethiopia, infection and incidence rates increase during vaccination in all countries except Nigeria. Methods other than vaccination like wearing a face mask, washing hands, and avoiding large gatherings should be intensified to curtail incidence and infection rates.

Dimensions

M.Alavi, ”Anovelcoronavirus outbreak from Wuhan city in China, rapid need for emergency departments preparedness and response; a letter to the editor”, Acad. Emerg. Med. 8 (2020) 1.

F. Wu, et al., ”A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China”, Nature 579 (2020) 265.

J. Chen, L. Hongzhou, M. Gerry, B. Stefania, P. Mauro, R. Walter, W. Ying, S. Yufang & Z. Tongyu, ”COVID-19 infection, the China and Italy perspectives”, Cell Death Dis., 11 (2020) 438.

F. Dale & H. David, ”The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID19”, BMC Medicine, 57 (2020) 18.

L. Saif, ”Animal coronavirus vaccines: lessons for SARS developments in biologicals”, PubMed, 119 (2004) 129.

G. O. Odekina, A. F. Adedotun & O. F. Imaga; ”Modeling and Forecasting the Third wave of Covid-19 IncidenceRate in Nigeria Using Vector Autoregressive Model Approach”, J. Nig. Soc. Phys. Sci. 4 (2022) 117.

D. O. Oyewola, E. G. Dada, J. N. Ndunagu, A. U. Terang & S. A. Akinwumi, ”COVID-19 Risk Factors, Economic Factors, and Epidemiological Factors nexus on Economic Impact: Machine Learning and Structural Equation Modelling Approaches”, J. Nig. Soc. Phys. Sci., 3 (2021) 395.

I. Dawoud, ”Modeling Palestinian COVID-19 Cumulative Confirmed Cases: A Comparative Study”, Infectious Disease Modelling 5 (2020) 748.

WorldHealthOrganization, ”Coronavirus (COVID-19) situation reports”, (2020). Accessed on 05th May.

Y. Ting, L. Sih-Han, L. Chao-Chih, P. Eugenio & C. Shao-Yuan, ”Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine for containing the spread of COVID-19: Three illustrations before and after vaccination periods” Journal of the Formosan Medical Association, (2021), http://doi:10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.015.

M. Pal, G. Berhanu, C. Desalegn & V. Kandi, ”Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2): an update”, Cureus, 12 (2020) 3.

O. A Ayanshina, A. O. Adeshakin, L. O. Afolabi, F. O. Adeshakin, G. O. Alli-Balogun, D. Yan, S. Essien & X. Wan, ”Seasonal variations in Nigeria: understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics and immune responses”, Journal of Global Health Reports (2020), http://doi.org/10.29392/001c.14600.

P. Calistri, L. Amato, I. Puglia, F. Cito, A. D. Giuseppe, M. L. Danzetta, D. Morelli, M. D. Domenico, M. Caporale, S. Scialabba, O. Portanti, V. Curini, F. Perletta, C. Camma, M. Ancora, G. Savani, G. Migliorati, N. D’Alterio & A. Lorusso, ”Infection sustained by lineage B.1.1.7 of SARS-CoV-2ischaracterised by longer persistence and higher viral RNA loads in nasopharyngeal swabs”, Int J Infect Dis. 105 (2021) 753.

A Sharma, S. K. Sharma, Y. Shi, E. Bucci, E. Carafoli, G. Melino, A. Bhattacherjee & G. Das , ”B.C.G. vaccination policy and preventive chloroquine usage: do they have an impact on COVID-19 pandemic?”, Cell Death and Disease 11 (2020) 51.

M. Liu, X. Liu, Y. Huang, Z. Ma & J. Bi , ”Epidemic transition of environmental health risk during China’s urbanization”, Science Bulletin 62 (2017) 92.

A. Rambaut, N. Loman, O. Pybus, W. Barclay, J. Barrett, A. Carabelli, T. Connor, T. Peacock, D. L. Robertson & E. Volz ”Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the U.K. defined by a Novel set of spike mutations” Genomic Epidemiology, (2021) https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic.characterization-of-anemergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spikemutation/563.

H. Tegally et al., ”Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa”, Nature 592 (2021) 7854.

N. Faria et al., ”Genomic characterisation of an emergent SARSCoV-2 lineage in Manaus: preliminary findings” Genomic Epidemiology, (2021) https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-ofan-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586.

T. Barnagarwala & A. Mascarenhas, ”Explained: variant and the Covid-19 surge in India.”, B.1.617 (2021), https://www.google.com/amp/s/indian.express.com/article/explained /maharashtra-double-mutant-found-b-1-617-variant-and-the-surge7274080/lite/

F. P. Polack et al., ”Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid19 Vaccine” New England Journal of Medicine 383 (2020) 27.

L. R. Baden et al., ”Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine”, New England Journal of Medicine 384 (2021) 403.

M. Voysey et al., ”Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccine (AZD1222)against SARS-CoV-2: aninterim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK”, The Lancet 397 (2021) 10269.

J. Sadoff et al., ”Interim results of a phase 1-2a trial of Ad26. COV2.S Covid-19 vaccine”, New England Journal of Medicine 384 (2021) 19.

K. Janiuk, J. Ewa & G. Marsena, ”Significance of NETS formation in COVID-19”, Cells 10 (2021) 151.

T. T. Yusuf, A. Abidemi, A. S. Afolabi & E. J. Dansu ”Optimal Control of the Coronavirus Pandemic with Impacts of Implemented Control Measures”, J. Nig. Soc. Phys. Sci. 4 (2022) 88.

M. Edouard, R. Hannah, O. Esteban, R. Max, H. Joe, A. Cameron, C. Giattino & L. Rodes-Guirao, ”A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations”, Nature Human Behaviour 5 (2021) 947.

World Bank, ”Climate change Knowledge Portal: Historical data”, 2021

M. Ahmadi, A. Sharifi & Y. Dorosti, ”Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran”, Science of the Total Environment, (2020) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138705.

E. De Martonne, ”Trait´e de G´eographie Physique, Notions generales, climat, hydrographie”. Geogr Rev 1 (1925) 336.

A. Croitoru, A. Piticar, A. Imbroane & D. Burada, “Spatiotemporal distribution of aridity indices based on temperature and precipitation in the extra-Carpathian regions of Romania”, Theor Appl Climatol. (2012).

A. R. Zareiee, ”Evaluation of changes in different climates of Iran, using De Martonne index and Mann–Kendall trend test”, Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss 2 (2014) 2245.

R. Bengt, ”On sampling with probabilty proportional size” Journal of statistical planning and inference, 62 (1997) 159-191.

S. Gong, H. Xie & F. Chen. ”Spatiotemporal change of epidemics and its relationship with human living environments in China over the past 2200 years”, Science China Earth Sciences 63 (2020) 1223.

C. Huang et al, ”Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China”, The Lancet 395 (2020) 10223.

H. H. Susanne, K. Mansatta, G. Mallet, V. Harris, K. R. W. Emary & A. J. Pollard, ”What defines an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against SARSCoV-2”, Lancet Infect Dis. 21 (2021) 2.

G. A. Weinberg & P. G. Szilagyi, ”Vaccine epidemiology: efficacy, effectiveness, and the translational research roadmap”, J Infect Dis. 201 (2010) 1607.

N. E. Basta, M. E. Halloran, L. Matrajt & I. M. Longini, ”Estimating influenza vaccine efficacy from challenge and community-based study data”, Am J Epidemiol. 168 (2008) 12.

A. Senapati, R. Sourav, D. Tamalendu & C. Joydev, ”Impact of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 In india: A model based study”, Journal of Theoretical Biology 523 (2021) 110711.

E. Mahase, “Covid-19: South Africa pauses use of Oxford vaccine after study casts doubt on efficacy against variant”, BMJ (2021) 372.

J. Cohen, “South Africa suspends use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine after it fails to clearly stop virus variant”

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/south-africasuspends-use-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-after-it-fails-clearlystop?utm source=Nature+B

I. F. Jaja, M. U. Anyanwu & C. I. Jaja, “Social distancing: how religion, culture, and burial ceremony undermine the effort to curb COVID-19 in South Africa”, Emerging Microbes and Infection 9 (2020) 1.

Q. Bukhari & Y. Jameel, “Will coronavirus pandemic diminish by summer?”, SSRN Electron Journal (2020) 66.

P. Cocco, F. Meloni, A. Coratza, D. Schirru, M. Campagna & S. De Matteis, “Vaccination against seasonal influenza and socio-economic and environmental factors as determinants of the geographic variation of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the Italian elderly”, Preventive Medicine 143 (2021) 106351.

S. G. Gupta, S. Raghuwanshi & A. Chanda, “Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: a prediction model

Published

2022-05-29

How to Cite

Comparative Analysis of the Implication of Periods Before and During Vaccination of COVID-19 Infection in Some Regional Leading African Countries. (2022). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 4(2), 310-317. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2022.702

Issue

Volume 4, Issue 2, May 2022

Section

Original Research
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Comparative Analysis of the Implication of Periods Before and During Vaccination of COVID-19 Infection in Some Regional Leading African Countries. (2022). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 4(2), 310-317. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2022.702