Innovative trend analysis of precipitation changes over Nigeria: A case study of locations across the Niger and Benue Rivers

Authors

  • Emmanuel P. Agbo
    Department of Physics, Akwa Ibom State University, Ikot Akpaden, Nigeria; Department of Physics, Cross River University of Technology, Calabar, Nigeria
    https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0215-2492
  • Golden C. Offorson
    Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Cross River University of Technology, Calabar, Nigeria
  • Abubakar S. Yusuf
    Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Minna, Nigeria
  • John O. Bassey
    Department of Environmental Resource Management, University of Calabar, Nigeria
  • Moses A. Okono
    Department of Physics, University of Calabar, Nigeria
  • Ugochukwu Nkajoe
    Department of Physics, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
  • Patrick O. Ushie
    Department of Physics, Cross River University of Technology, Calabar, Nigeria

Keywords:

Rainfall, Precipitation , Climate change, Innovative trend analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test

Abstract

Precipitation has  become a major topic of discussion in the subject of climate change. Studies have presented correlative relationships between climate change and the existing alterations in the global water cycle, leading to more extreme precipitation events, including both droughts and floods. This has shown severe impacts on agriculture, water resources, ozone levels, and human settlements. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends in 40 years (1981-2020) of total monthly and annual precipitation data from six selected locations in Nigeria, using both the Mann-Kendall (MK) and new Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA) method. The stations were chosen because of their close proximity to the Niger or Benue Rivers. The data were visually analyzed using boxplots to identify seasonal patterns and outliers, and the results of the MK test show that four of the six locations detected trends for annual and wet season precipitation variations. However, this was not applicable to dry season variations. The ITA test results show that only Kainji has an increasing trend in total annual and wet season precipitation, especially for high precipitation values, whereas other locations show decreasing trends for maximum precipitation values. A comparison of the two tests suggests that, the ITA test is more sensitive in detecting trends in precipitation data for the study locations. Overall, this study provides useful information for understanding the precipitation patterns in Nigeria, and can assist in planning and implementing appropriate water resource management strategies, with regards to the major rivers in the region.

Dimensions

A. Abdulkadir, A. M. Lawal & T. I. Muhammad, “Climate change and its implications on human existence in Nigeria: a review”, Bayero Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences 10 (2017) 152. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/bajopas/article/view/170772.

Z. A. Elum & A. S. Momodu, “Climate change mitigation and renewable energy for sustainable development in Nigeria: A discourse approach”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 76 (2017) 72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.03.040.

B. Anabaraonye, “The Health Benefits in the Use of Solar Energy for Sustainable Development in Nigeria”, EC Emergency Medicine and Critical Care 4 (2020) 1. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338991836_The_Health_Benefits_in_the_Use_of_Solar_Energy_for_Sustainable_Development_in_Nigeria.

B. Gutti, M. M. Aji & G. Magaji, “Environmental impact of natural resources exploitation in Nigeria and the way forward”, Journal of Applied Technology in Environmental Sanitation 2 (2012) 95. https://www.wathi.org/environmental-impact-of-natural-resources-exploitation-in-nigeria-and-the-way-forward-university-of-maidugury/

R. Bar, E. Rouholahnejad, K. Rahman, K. C. Abbaspour & A. Lehmann,¨ “Climate change and agricultural water resources: A vulnerability assessment of the Black Sea catchment”, Environmental Science & Policy 46 (2015) 57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.04.008.

G. Ceribasi & A. I. Ceyhunlu, “Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method”, Journal of Water and Climate Change 12 (2021) 1532. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.253.

K. E. Trenberth, “Changes in precipitation with climate change”, Climate Research 47 (2011) 123. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953.

O. C. Chinwendu, S. O. E. Sadiku & A. A. Okhimamhe, “Households vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability induced water stress on downstream Kaduna River Basin”, American Journal of Climate Change 2 (2017) 247. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.62013

P. Akpodiogaga-a & O. Odjugo, “General overview of climate change impacts in Nigeria”, Journal of Human Ecology 29 (2010) 47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2010.11906248.

K. J. Ani, V. O. Anyika & E. Mutambara, “The impact of climate change on food and human security in Nigeria”, International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 14 (2022) 148. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2020-0119.

Z. A. Elum, K. Mopipi & A. Henri-Ukoha, “Oil exploitation and its socioeconomic effects on the Niger Delta region of Nigeria”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 23 (2016) 12880. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-6864-1.

K. O. Doro, S. Ehosioke & A. P. Aizebeokhai, “Sustainable Soil and Water Resources Management in Nigeria: The Need for a Data-Driven Policy Approach”, Sustainability 12 (2020) 4204. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104204.

V. Aich, B. Kone, F. F. Hattermann & E. N. Paton, “Time series analysis´ of floods across the Niger River Basin”, Water 8 (2016) 165. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040165.

P. G. Oguntunde & B. J. Abiodun, “The impact of climate change on the Niger River Basin hydroclimatology, West Africa”, Climate Dynamics 40 2013 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1498-6.

E. Harka, N. B. Jilo & F. Behulu, “Spatial-temporal rainfall trend and variability assessment in the Upper Wabe Shebelle River Basin, Ethiopia: Application of innovative trend analysis method”, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 37 (2021) 100915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100915.

L. Cui, L. Wang, Z. Lai, Q. Tian, W. Liu & J. Li, “Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015”, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 164 (2017) 48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100915.

Y. Alifujiang, J. Abuduwaili, B. Maihemuti, B. Emin & M. Groll, “Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan”, Atmosphere 11 (2020) 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040332.

I. Gujree, I. Ahmad, F. Zhang & A. Arshad, “Innovative trend analysis of high-altitude climatology of Kashmir valley, North-West Himalayas”, Atmosphere 13 (2022) 764. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050764.

J. Mallick, S. Talukdar, M. Alsubih, R. Salam, M. Ahmed, N. B. Kahla, & N. Shammimuzzaman “Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 143 (2021) 823. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03448-1.

A. Girma, T. Qin, H. Wang, D. Yan, M. Gedefaw & A. Abiyu, “Study on Recent Trends of Climate Variability Using Innovative Trend Analysis: The Case of the upper Huai River Basin”, Polish Journal of Environmental Studies 29 (2020) 2199. https://doi.org/10.15244/pjoes/103448.

W. D. S. Nisansala, N. S. Abeysingha, A. Islam, & A. Bandara, “Recent rainfall trend over Sri Lanka (1987–2017)”, International Journal of Climatology 40 (2020) 3417. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6405.

T. Caloiero, “Evaluation of rainfall trends in the South Island of New Zealand through the innovative trend analysis (ITA)”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 139 (2020) 493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02988-5.

J. D. K. Marak, A. Chakma & D. P. Paul, “Study on rainfall variability and estimation of extreme rainfall for climate change scenarios: Application on the West Rapti River Basin, Nepal”, Natural Hazards 106 (2021) 739– 766. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04468-6.

Harkat, S. & O. Kisi, “Trend analysis of precipitation records using an innovative trend methodology in a semi-arid Mediterranean environment: Cheliff Watershed Case (Northern Algeria)”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 44, (2021) 1001. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03520-4.

M. S¸an, F. Akc¸ay, N.T.T. Linh, M. Kankal & Q. B. Pham, “Innovative and polygonal trend analyses applications for rainfall data in Vietnam”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 144 2021 809. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03574-4.

A. Danandeh Mehr, B. Hrnjica, O. Bonacci & T. Haghighi, “Innovative and successive average trend analysis of temperature and precipitation in Osijek, Croatia”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 145 (2021) 875. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03672-3.

B. Boudiaf, Z. S¸en, & H. Boutaghane, “Climate change impact on rainfall in north-eastern Algeria using innovative trend analyses (ITA)”, Arabian Journal of Geosciences 14 (2021) 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03574-4.

Z. Dong, W. Jia, R. Sarukkalige, G. Fu, Q. Meng & Q. Wang, “Innovative trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation in the Jinsha river basin, China”, Water 12 (2020) 3293. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113293.

J. Das, T. Mandal, A. S. Rahman & P. Saha, “Spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall in Bangladesh: an innovative trend and discrete wavelet transformation approaches”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 143 (2021) 1557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03508-6.

G. Ceribasi & A. I. Ceyhunlu, “Analysis of total monthly precipitation of Susurluk Basin in Turkey using innovative polygon trend analysis method”, Journal of Water and Climate Change 12 (2021) 1532. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.253.

A. H. Igweze, M. N. Amagoh & A. N. Ashinze, “Analysis of rainfall variations in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria”, Journal of Environmental Science Toxicology and Food Technology 8 (2014) 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.9790/2402-08162530.

Z. S¸en, “Innovative trend analysis methodology”, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 17 (2012) 1042. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556.

E. P. Agbo & C. O. Edet, “Meteorological analysis of the relationship between climatic parameters: understanding the dynamics of the troposphere”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 150 (2022) 1677. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04226-x.

E. P. Agbo, U. Nkajoe, M. A. Okono, E. P. Inyang & C. O Edet, “Temperature and solar radiation interactions in all six zones of Nigeria”, Indian Journal of Physics 97 (2022) 655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12648-022-02429-6.

E. P. Agbo, E. B. Ettah & E. E. Eno, “The impacts of meteorological parameters on the seasonal, monthly, and annual variation of radio refractivity”, Indian Journal of Physics 95 (2021) 195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12648-020-01711-9.

E. P. Agbo & C. M. Ekpo, “Trend analysis of the variations of ambient temperature using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s estimate in Calabar, southern Nigeria”, Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1734 (2021) 012016. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1734/1/012016.

E. P. Agbo, U. Nkajoe, C. O. Edet & N. Ali, “Identification of trends of key parameters affecting vegetation over Nigeria’s vegetation zones using innovative trend analysis”, Environmental Earth Sciences 82 (2023) 464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-11141-5.

D. E Ekpa, E. A. Salubi, J. A. Olusola & D. Akintade, “Spatio-temporal analysis of environmental and climatic factors impacts on malaria morbidity in Ondo State, Nigeria”, Heliyon 9 (2023) e14005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14005.

I. I. Ozigis, R. A. Adeyemi, P. A. Ondachi & S. O. Oodo, “Performance evaluation of Kainji hydro-electric power plant using artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression”, International Journal of Energy and Water Resources 6 (2021) 231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42108-021-00135-3.

I. M. Animashaun, P. A. Adeoye, M. Y. Otache & O. A. Abatan, “Rainfall variability and trend analysis over Lokoja, Nigeria”, Covenant Journal of Engineering Technology 4 (2020) 2405. https://journals.covenantuniversity.edu.ng/index.php/cjet/article/view/2405.

U. U. Jimoh,“Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Flood Inundation in Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria”, Forum Geografi 36 (2022) 7817. https://journals.ums.ac.id/fg/article/view/15968/7817

T. E. Ologunorisa & T. Tersoo, “The changing rainfall pattern and its implication for flood frequency in Makurdi, Northern Nigeria”, Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management 10 (2006) 97. https://doi.org/10.4314/jasem.v10i3.17327.

A. M. Owoicho, E. Emmanuel & O. Godwin, “Investigation of trends in climate extreme over Makurdi, Nigeria using climate indices”, Acta Scientiae Applied Physics 2 2022 4. https://actascientific.com/ASAP/ASAP-02-0026.php

J. C. Egbueri, “Heavy metals pollution source identification and probabilistic health risk assessment of shallow groundwater in Onitsha, Nigeria”, Analytical Letters 53 (2020) 1620. https://doi.org/10.1080/00032719.2020.1712606.

C. Nwaogu, O. J. Okeke, O. O. Fadipe, K. A. Bashiru & V. Pechanec, “Is Nigeria losing its natural vegetation and landscape? Assessing the land-use-land-cover change trajectories and effects in Onitsha using remote sensing and GIS”, Open Geosciences 9 (2017) 707. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2017OGeo....9...53N/doi:10.1515/geo-2017-0053

A. J. Oloruntade, K. O. Mogaji & O. B. Imoukhuede, “Rainfall trends and variability over Onitsha, Nigeria”, Ruhuna Journal of Science 9 (2018) 221. http://192.248.48.10/rjs/index.php/rjs/article/view/221.

W. P. Agbai & M. T. Kosuowei, “Influence of land-use systems on hydraulic properties of soils in Yenagoa and Amassoma, Bayelsa State, Nigeria”, International Journal of Environment 11 (2022) 23. https://doi.org/10.3126/ije.v11i1.45838.

K. E. Idhoko, E. L. Ndiwari, V. C. Ogeh & S. C. Ikegbulam, “Urban road network analysis of Yenagoa, Bayelsa State Using GIS”, International Journal of Engineering and Computer Science 5 (2016) 15605. https://ijecs.in/index.php/ijecs/article/view/317.

E. Oborie & H. O. Nwankwoala, “Determination of groundwater flow direction in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, Nigeria”, Journal of Scientific Achievements 2 (2017) 23. https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=3508391.

A. A. Sadiq, S. M. Umar & M. U. Bello, “An estimation of rainfall anomaly index and its impact on crop production in Yola and environs”, African Journal of Environment and Natural Science Research 3 (2020) 35. https://abjournals.org/african-journal-of-environment-and-natural-science-research-ajensr/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/journal/published_paper/volume-3/issue-4/AJENSR_LTPC9C8A.pdf

E. P. Agbo, “The role of statistical methods and tools for weather forecasting and modeling”, Weather Forecasting IntechOpen 3 (2021) 3. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96854.

D. L. De Luca, A. Petroselli & L. Galasso, “A transient stochastic rainfall generator for climate changes analysis at hydrological scales in Central Italy”, Atmosphere 11 (2020) 1292. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121292.

M. G. Kendall, “Rank correlation methods Griffin”, London, UK, 1975. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1948-15040-000.

H. B. Mann, “Nonparametric tests against trend”, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 13 1945 245. https://doi.org/0012-9682(194507)13:3.

E. P. Agbo, C. M. Ekpo & C. O. Edet, “Analysis of the effects of meteorological parameters on radio refractivity, equivalent potential temperature and field strength via Mann-Kendall test”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 143 (2021) 1437. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-020-03464-1.

T. Chu, X. Guo & K. Takeda, “Remote sensing approach to detect postfire vegetation regrowth in Siberian boreal larch forest”, Ecological Indicators 62 (2016) 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.11.026.

Z. S¸en, “Trend identification simulation and application”, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 19 (2014) 635. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811.

Q. Meng, H. Bai, R. Sarukkalige, G. Fu, W. Jia & C. Zhang, “Annual and seasonal precipitation trends and their attributions in the Qinling Mountains, a climate transitional zone in China”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 144 2021 401. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-020-03482-z.

Z. S¸en, Innovative trend methodologies in science and engineering, “Spatial Trend Analysis”, Springer Cham, New York, US, 2017, pp. 227–280. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-319-52338-5.pdf.

E. P. Agbo, U. Nkajoe & C. O. Edet, “Comparison of Mann–Kendall and S¸en’s innovative trend method for climatic parameters over Nigeria’s climatic zones”, Climate Dynamics 60 (2022) 3385. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06521-9.

C. Yozgatligil, S. Aslan, C. Iyigun & I. Batmaz, “Comparison of missing value imputation methods in time series: the case of Turkish meteorological data”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112 (2013) 143. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-012-0723-x.

J. E. V. Ferreira, M. T. S. Pinheiro & W. R. S. dos Santos, “Graphical representation of chemical periodicity of main elements through boxplot”, Educacion Qu´ ´?mica 27 (2016) 209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eq.2016.04.007.

P. Mishra, C. M. Pandey, U. Singh, A. Gupta, C. Sahu & A. Keshri, “Descriptive statistics and normality tests for statistical data”, Annals of Cardiac Anaesthesia 22 (2019) 67. https://doi.org/10.4103/aca.ACA_157_18

S. Ogunjo, A. Olusola, I. Fuwape & O. Durowoju, “Temporal variation in deterministic chaos: the influence of Kainji dam on downstream stations along lower Niger River”, Arab Journal of Geosciences 15 (2022) 237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09297-0.

F. A. Adesina & T. O. Odekunle, “Climate change and adaptation in Nigeria: Some background to Nigeria’s response–III”, presented at the International Conference on Environmental and Agriculture Engineering 15 (2011) 146. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:55687831

M. S. Shiru, S. Shahid, S. Shiru, E. S. Chung, N. Alias & K. Ahmed, et al., “Challenges in water resources of Lagos mega city of Nigeria in the context of climate change”, Journal of Water and Climate Change 11 (2020) 1067. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.047.

Y. Alifujiang, J. Abuduwaili, B. Maihemuti, B. Emin & M. Groll, “Innovative trend analysis of precipitation in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan”, Atmosphere 11 (2020) 332. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040332.

M. C. Ekwe, J. K. Joshua, J. E. Igwe & A. Osinowo, “Mathematical study of monthly and annual rainfall trends in Nasarawa State, Nigeria”, IOSR Journal of Mathematics (IOSR-JM) 10 (2014) 56. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Mathematical-Study-of-Monthly-and-Annual-Rainfall-Ekwe-Joshua/63e107c8eb6a0a8a2484d4fef914ca1113400bae.

P. G. Oguntunde, B. J. Abiodun & G. Lischeid, “Rainfall trends in Nigeria, 1901–2000”, Journal of Hydrology 411 (2011) 207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.037.

K. E. Ukhurebor & I. C. Abiodun, “Variation in annual rainfall data of forty years (1978-2017) for South-South, Nigeria”, Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management 22 (2018) 511. https://doi.org/10.4314/jasem.v22i4.13.

J. C. Stromberg, S. J. Lite & M. D. Dixon, “Effects of stream flow patterns on riparian vegetation of a semiarid river: implications for a changing climate”, River Research and Applications 26 (2010) 712. https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.1272.

C. Shade, P. Kremer, J. Rockwell & K. Henderson, “The effects of urban development and current green infrastructure policy on future climate change resilience”, Ecology and Society 25 (2020) 37 . https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12076-250437.

R. Cervigni & R. Valentini, “Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria World Bank Publications”, Washington D. C., United States, 2013, pp. 1–215. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/707851468100141797/pdf/Toward-climate-resilient-development-in-Nigeria.pdf.

A. C. Getirana, J. C. V. Espinoza, J. Ronchail & O. C. Rotunno Filho, “Assessment of different precipitation datasets and their impacts on the water balance of the Negro River basin”, Journal of Hydrology 404 (2011) 304. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.037.

C. Keef, C. Svensson & J. A. Tawn, “Spatial dependence in extreme river flows and precipitation for Great Britain”, Journal of Hydrology 378 (2009) 240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.026.

A. Tarpanelli, G. Amarnath, L. Brocca, C. Massari & T. Moramarco, “Discharge estimation and forecasting by MODIS and altimetry data in Niger-Benue River”, Remote Sensing of Environment 195 (2017) 96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.04.015.

I. Elkhrachy, “Flash flood hazard mapping using satellite images and GIS tools: a case study of Najran City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)”, The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science 18 (2015) 261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrs.2015.06.007.

A. Akinbobola, E. C. Okogbue & O. O. Olajiire, “A GIS-based flood risk mapping along the Niger-Benue river basin in Nigeria using watershed approach”, Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management 8 (2015) 616. https://doi.org/10.4314/ejesm.v8i6.1.

Published

2025-02-01

How to Cite

Innovative trend analysis of precipitation changes over Nigeria: A case study of locations across the Niger and Benue Rivers. (2025). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 7(1), 1868. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2025.1868

Issue

Volume 7, Issue 1, February 2025

Section

Earth Sciences
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2024 Emmanuel P. Agbo, Golden C. Offorson, Abubakar S. Yusuf, John O. Bassey, Moses A. Okono, Ugochukwu Nkajoe, Patrick O. Ushie

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Innovative trend analysis of precipitation changes over Nigeria: A case study of locations across the Niger and Benue Rivers. (2025). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 7(1), 1868. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2025.1868

Similar Articles

151-160 of 273

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.