Optimal control strategies for dynamical model of climate change under real data

Authors

  • Fatmawati
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Faishal F. Herdicho
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Nurina Fitriani
    Department of Biology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia
  • Norma Alias
    Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
  • Mazlan Hashim
    Geoscience & Digital Earth Centre (INSTEG), Research Institute for Sustainable Environment (RISE), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
  • Olumuyiwa J. Peter
    Department of Mathematics, Saveetha School of Engineering, SIMATS, Saveetha University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 602105, India

Keywords:

Climate change, cost-effectiveness analysis, mathematical model, optimal control, parameters estimation

Abstract

Climate change is primarily caused by increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) in the atmosphere, with significant impacts on global temperatures and ecosystems. The interplay between CO$_2$ levels, forest biomass, and temperature highlights how important it is to conserve these vital ecosystems in order to effectively combat climate change. In this study, we construct and analysis the Lotka-Volterra model to explore the interactions between concentration of CO$_2$, photosynthetic biomass density and atmospheric temperature. The results of the model analysis obtained four locally asymptotically stable equilibria under specific conditions and two unstable equilibria. Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the most influential parameters affecting changes in concentration number are intrinsic rate of accumulation of CO$_2$ and natural reduction rate of CO$_2$. Next to estimate the model parameters, we employ the least-squares method, enabling us to apply the model to actual temperature data from Surabaya city, Indonesia. The numerical simulation results show that CO$_2$ concentration is expected to range from 400 to 420 ppm, biomass density is estimated to be between 92 and 102 kg/m$^3$, and atmospheric temperature is projected around $28.1^o$C $- 29.1^o$C. Next, using the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) calculation, implementing control strategy in the form of limiting access to private vehicles and reforestation is the best strategy to make the temperature better and cost efficiency. 

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Published

2025-08-01

How to Cite

Optimal control strategies for dynamical model of climate change under real data. (2025). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 7(3), 2572. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2025.2572

Issue

Volume 7, Issue 3, August 2025

Section

Mathematics & Statistics
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2025 Fatmawati, Faishal F. Herdicho, Nurina Fitriani, Norma Alias, Mazlan Hashim, Olumuyiwa J. Peter

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Optimal control strategies for dynamical model of climate change under real data. (2025). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 7(3), 2572. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2025.2572

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