Modelling the transmission dynamics of Omicron variant of COVID-19 in densely populated city of Lagos in Nigeria

Authors

  • Bolarinwa Bolaji
    Mathematical Sciences department, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba; Nigeria | Laboratory of Mathematical Epidemiology and Applied Sciences, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba; Nigeria
  • B. I. Omede
    Mathematical Sciences department, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba; Nigeria | Laboratory of Mathematical Epidemiology and Applied Sciences, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba; Nigeria
  • U. B. Odionyenma
    Mathematics department, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria
  • P. B. Ojih
    Mathematical Sciences department, Prince Abubakar Audu University, Anyigba; Nigeria
  • Abdullahi A. Ibrahim
    Mathematical Sciences department, Baze University, Abuja; Nigeria

Keywords:

Epidemiological model, deterministic model

Abstract

The kernel of the work in this article is the proposition of a model to examine the effect of control measures on the transmission dynamics of Omicron variant of coronavirus disease in the densely populated metropolis of Lagos. Data as relate to the pandemic was gathered as officially released by the Nigerian authority. We make use of this available data of the disease from 1st of December, 2021 to 20th of January, 2022 when omicron variant was first discovered in Nigeria. We computed the basic reproduction number, an epidemiological threshold useful for bringing the disease under check in the aforementioned geographical region of the country. Furthermore, a forecasting tool was derived, for making forecasts for the cumulative number of cases of infection as reported and the number of individuals where the Omicron variant of COVID-19 infection is active for the deadly disease. We carried out numerical simulations of the model using the available data so gathered to show the effects of non-pharmaceutical control measures such as adherence to common social distancing among individuals while in public space, regular use of face masks, personal hygiene using hand sanitizers and periodic washing of hands with soap and pharmaceutical control measures, case detecting via contact tracing occasioning clinical testing of exposed individuals, on the spread of Omicron variant of COVID-19 in the city. The results from the numerical simulations revealed that if detection rate for the infected people can be increased, with majority of the population adequately complying with the safety protocols strictly, then there will be a remarkable reduction in the number of people being afflicted by the scourge of the highly communicable disease in the city.

Dimensions

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Published

2023-04-17

How to Cite

Modelling the transmission dynamics of Omicron variant of COVID-19 in densely populated city of Lagos in Nigeria. (2023). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 5(2), 1055. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2023.1055

Issue

Volume 5, Issue 2, May 2023

Section

Original Research
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2023 Bolarinwa Bolaji, B. I. Omede, U. B. Odionyenma, P. B. Ojih, Abdullahi A. Ibrahim

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Modelling the transmission dynamics of Omicron variant of COVID-19 in densely populated city of Lagos in Nigeria. (2023). Journal of the Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences, 5(2), 1055. https://doi.org/10.46481/jnsps.2023.1055

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