Numerical Analysis of Fractional-Order Dynamic Dengue Disease Epidemic in Sudan

Fathelrhman EL Guma; Ossama M. Badawy; Mohammed  Berir; Mohamed A.   Abdoon

doi:10.46481/jnsps.2023.1464

Authors

Fathelrhman EL Guma
[email protected]

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Arts, Albaha University, Albaha, Saudi Arabia | Department of statistical Study, Peace University, Sudan.
Ossama M. Badawy
Department of biology, Faculty of Science and Arts, Albaha University, Albaha, Saudi Arabia
Mohammed Berir
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Arts, Albaha University, Albaha, Saudi Arabia | Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Bakht Al-Ruda University, Duwaym, Sudan
Mohamed A. Abdoon
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Bakht Al-Ruda University, Duwaym, Sudan

Keywords:

A fractional Caputo-Fabrizio; Prediction; simulation; Dengue.

Abstract

The main idea of this work is numerical simulation and stability analysis for the fractional-order dynamics of the dengue disease outbreak in Sudan. This research uses a computer technique based on the Adams-Bashforth approach to numerically resolve a fractional-order dengue epidemic in Sudan. Analyses of numerical and dynamic stability show that the fractional-order dengue fever model is sensitive to initial conditions for those parameters. Therefore, the parameters’ values are critical in establishing how many individuals will get better from their sickness and how many will become ill. The proposed method is effective in providing an illustration of the solution’s dynamics over a very long horizon of time, which is crucial for making accurate predictions about the spread of dengue in Sudan. In addition, this method can be utilized to assess the efficacy of various intervention strategies and inform public health policies aimed at reducing the burden of dengue fever in Sudan. It can also assist in identifying areas most susceptible to dengue infestations and prioritizing disease control resources.

Dimensions

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